Prospects for long-term peace in
Somalia
Mohamed Mire
Ahamed (mirem)
Some analysts in
Somalia believe, like China’s Mao Tse-Tung, that war is sometimes a
solution.
The United
Nations, USA and EU made many peace initiatives and reconciliation
for Somali people. But, unfortunately, none of these efforts
succeeded in the last 16 years.
Starting from
Djibouti conference, August 1991, Eldoret, Jiddah, Addis Ababa,
Cairo
Khartoum, Nakuru,
Kenya, Arta, Djibouti and up to the recent Mbagathi peace and
reconciliation
conferences, Somali problems resulted in a number of draft
objectives but without action in resolving the crisis. This was
due to the
ongoing violent clashes the Somali capital of Mogadishu, and which
spread to other
regions.
But the wars
between Union of Islamic Courts (UIC) and warlords of Mogadishu
resulted in six months of peace after the UIC victory. The
warlords were forced to flee
from the
capital.
This was
followed by the clash between the UICs and the FTG forces, supported
by Ethiopia. FTG and Ethiopian forces proved too powerful for the
UIC and gain control of the capital and the region.
Analysts predict
that if the TFG succeeds in bringing in UN and AU peacekeeping
forces the security situation in Somalia, especially Mogadishu, will
be stabilized.
The search for a
solution for Mogadishu is a product of many initiatives involving in
part Somali and foreign intervention.
The current
fragile peace will need to be stabilized on a long-term basis.
South Africa offers a model for a long-term peace prospect. Here the
executive, parliament and judiciary are located in different parts
of the country. This decentralization of power will help to
maintain peace and stability in the long term.