The African Star

An on-line publication for degree and certificate programs in journalism

Vol. 5 No. 1 2008

News Analysis: Latest Somali peace agreement unlikely to sail through

By Abdilahi Ibrahim Nour, journalism degree student, University of Hargeisa

Somalia has been without a central government since the collapse of the Siyad Barre's regime in the early nineties. The country seems to have experienced the worst political turmoil and a biting humanitarian crisis. The UN puts the figure of the country's citizens in dire need of humanitarian assistance at 3.2 million people, an uphill task for any humanitarian organization to accomplish.

Efforts to salvage the image of Somalia have been ongoing since the fall of the central government in 1991. At least 14 reconciliation conferences have been held in various locations outside the war-ravaged country, however, none of them have brought the much needed peace and stability with the exception of the 2004 conference in Nairobi that gave birth to the current weak Transitional Federal Government of Somalia under the leadership of President Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed.

The advent of Abdullahi Yusuf's government brought about various problems - including the Ethiopian invasion of Somalia. Ethiopia claims the presence of its troops in Somalia was based on an invitation from President Yusuf's government to restore peace and security in the country. However, their presence, created rise of various factions on Somalia's already bloated political scene, including the hard-line Islamists factions that are bent on fighting the government and Ethiopian forces in almost daily attacks.

Among the Islamist factions fighting the TFG are the Union of Islamic Courts (UIC) and the militant Al-Shabab forces - which say Ethiopian presence in the country is a violation of their sovereignty. The UIC which once controlled most parts of southern Somalia split into two rival factions - one based in Eritrea and the other in Djibouti. Both factions now call themselves the Alliance for Re-Liberation of Somalia (ARS)

The ARS' Djibouti faction is headed by Shaykh Sharif Shaykh Ahmed while the Asmara based is headed by Shaykh Hasan Dahir Aweys, who respectively were the two top leaders of the Union of Islamic Courts during its six month administration in southern and central Somalia. Sharif was the chairman of the UIC's executive council while Aways was the chairman of the consultative council [Shura] of the UIC. However, the two fell out after Sharif left Eritrea for the neighbouring Djibouti and started talks with the TFG.

Recently, the Transitional Federal Government of Somalia [TFG] and the Djibouti-based faction of the Alliance for the Re-liberation of Somalia [ARS], which have been holding peace talks in Djibouti, signed a peace agreement to end the protracted violence in Somalia.

The key resolution of the agreement is the withdrawal of Ethiopian troops within 120 days and the deployment of UN peacekeeping force to replace them. They have since reached a political settlement paving way for the expansion of the Somali parliament. The two sides agreed that the current 275-member parliament to be doubled allowing the ARS team to take same number of parliamentarians in the new 550-member parliament.

The agreement, mediated by the UN special envoy to Somalia Ahmed Ould Abdallah, has been widely hailed by the Somali government, western and Arab diplomats as a major breakthrough to end the country's bloody violence, which international rights groups and aid agencies said to have claimed the lives of more than 6,000 civilians.

"This is a crucial step towards lasting peace and reconciliation in our country," said Ahmed Abdisalam, the deputy prime minister and the leader of TFG delegation to the talks.

However, the accord is unlikely to bring a lasting peace to the war-torn Horn of African nation, because both parties of the agreement do not enjoy much support on the ground.

The TFG, whose forces is made up ill-equipped former clan militia cannot overrun the Islamic insurgents even with the support of the Ethiopian troops in the country, likewise, the ARS faction that signed the agreement does not have the power to implement the cease fire, since the majority of the Islamist fighters are opposed to the peace pact.

Therefore, the two signatories of the accord have no absolute control over the armed factions in the country. Groups opposed to TFG and the presence of Ethiopian forces in the country have strongly opposed the pact. These are the splinter factions of the former Union of Islamic Courts (UIC) and the Al-Shabab group which was largely seen as part of the UIC before disintegration of the Islamist movement in Somalia. Although they all belong to the same school of thought, again they differed in principle over the presence of Ethiopian forces in the country and their perceived proxy TFG government, which they say was incapable of restoring peace and order in the country.

These factions are widely seen as affiliated to the Asmara-based Alliance for Re-Liberation of Somalia (ARS) led by Shaykh Hasan Dahir Aweys, which insists that the Ethiopian troops must leave the country before any talks are held. Shaykh Aways was "elected" to replace Shaykh Sharif, the ARS chairman, "for violating ARS constitution by holding talks with the TFG without the approval of the alliance

In a statement issued in the Eritrean capital, Asmara, the Away's wing said: "The Djibouti exercise has no validity and shall not be binding on the ARS and the Somali people." It called on the Somali people "to redouble their heroic struggle against the occupation."

The ARS faction that signed the peace agreement is made up of moderate clerics and intellectuals that are unlikely to implement the accord on the ground. Despite the cease-fire agreement between the ARS faction and the TFG being in place since November 5, attacks against the TFG and Ethiopian forces continue almost on daily basis. According to the privately-owned Somali language Shabeelle website, the worst attack happened on November 6 when Islamists attacked government forces in Mogadishu, fighting that later spread to the roads leading to the presidential palace.

In Baydhabo, the seat of Somali parliament, assassination of government officials continues, with the last official killed being the town's deputy district commissioner.

Al-Shabab, the hard-line Islamist and militarily, the strongest insurgent group, dismissed the agreement and vowed to fight the Ethiopian troops until Islamic Shari'ah is implemented across Somalia. Following an attack on the Ethiopian border town of Ferfer, Al-Shabab's spokesman, Shaykh Mukhtar Robow, alias Abu Mansur, who is said to have fought alongside Taliban in Afghanistan, said in a telephone media conference that they will continue attacking Ethiopian forces wherever they are, until they are defeated. He went on said: "We will see if those who signed the agreement can bring about real cease-fire."

The group has made more gains in recent fighting by taking over the control of more towns in southern and central Somalia and was now closing the noose to the capital Mogadishu.

The defence secretary of ARS, Shaykh Yusuf Siyad, alias Indha-adde, one of the UIC's commanders on the ground, similarly rejected the agreement, saying "Shaykh Sharif is our leader; however, we oppose the Djibouti agreement." He stressed that they would continue fighting Ethiopian and government forces.

Independent analysts have also expressed pessimism over the implementation of the accord. Former US ambassador to Ethiopia David Shinn says the accord will achieve nothing unless the Somali people themselves feel it is worth supporting.

Banaadir Radio, an independent radio station in Mogadishu has recently reported that Al-Shabab, Union of Islamic Courts and Raas Kambooni Brigade-all Islamist insurgent groups announced to form a single front. The unification of these groups is another blow to the agreement since their joint attacks against the Somali and Ethiopian forces will be massive ones and presumably make them capture more territories.

Unless Islamists groups, especially the hard-line Al-Shabab group, which now control the large parts of southern and central Somalia, are brought on board, the Djibouti agreement is unlikely to make any significant impact in ending the long bloody conflict in Somalia.